Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Latest Zogby poll a wakeup call to McCain in SC

A new South Carolina Presidential primary preference poll is out from Zogby. The poll should serve as a wakeup call to the McCain campaign.

Various news sources have said that McCain's people expect to win South Carolina in 2008 and they should. In 2000, McCain won nearly 42 percent of the primary vote in his loss to George W. Bush. If McCain stays anywhere close to that number, McCain could win the SC primary with relative ease in the crowded field.

The problem is, McCain is at little over half that amount of support in the latest Zogby poll. In that poll, McCain sits at 22 percent, Rudy sits at 19%, non candidate Fred Thompson sits at 11%, Mitt Romney, who has worked the grassroots with a furor, sits at 10% and non candidate Governor Mark Sanford sits at 8%. If neither Thompson of Sanford get in the race, that is a 19% that is up for grabs.

That 19% will be looking for a conservative candidate. That could potentially rule out McCain and Rudy, leaving Romney the potential big winner of of those votes. For like him or not, Romney is quickly becoming the proverbial leopard who has changed his spots.

Chances are Sanford will not get in and Thompson will. That said, the numbers have to be a wakeup call for McCain and his people. They have sort of sat out the cycle of local county conventions and grassroots building. That has hurt them. McCain's numbers are the lowest they have been in SC since the horse race for 2008 started.

The McCain folks are going to have to roll up their sleeves in South Carolina and go to work to win the primary. It is not going to be the automatic victory some envisioned.

Some McCain supporters do not care. One McCain supporter confided to me that with the early primaries in Florida and California, South Carolina was not the big deal it once was, and a defeat in South Carolina to Romney or Rudy would be no big deal if it was followed by wins in Florida and California.

Perhaps that is the case. I do not blog about Florida or California politics. But, here in South Carolina, McCain is going to have to fight for a win afterall. It is not going to be handed to him by matter of right. No one knows who will win South Carolina, especially when one factors in Fred Thompson. South Carolina's Republican Primary is up for grabs.

The question is will McCain answer the SC wakeup call and fight here, or will he see the problematic situation and write South Carolina off and spend his time in bigger states?

7 comments:

  1. Who cares who the crackers are going to vote for. The real debate is in Orangeburg on Thursday night. Brothers will know after that who to support. To Hell with McCain.

    Ty

    ReplyDelete
  2. McCain is a old POW. Rudy is a crossdresser who lived with gays. Romney is the only one with one wife.

    Think about it.

    TED

    ReplyDelete
  3. reality checkApril 25, 2007

    You will see that the AAI that condemned McCain over his defense stance The president of AAI is related(brothers) with the Zogby polling guy by the links below.

    AAI condemns McCain
    http://www.aaiusa.org/press-room/2939/mccain-should-disavow-comments-on-bombing-iran
    The links to the Arab community
    http://www.militantislammonitor.org/article/id/304

    This needs to be brought to the forefront as I understand the polls ran by this family have been rather nasty to McCain and the motive. The Zogby poll needs to actually show how they poll to be credible. Timing is everything, interesting. But the internal polls I see I have used before show McCain 14% up. I will stand with the polls that are more favorable as I have seen their accuracy, and they know SC better.

    I think McCain all the way. At least with me.

    ReplyDelete
  4. McCain is the best chance we have at third Bush term to defeat the terrorists.

    Go McCain.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm sure glad that Ty could take a minute from his busy schedule to help set us straight on what is what and who is who.

    ReplyDelete
  6. McCain can't win most conservatives. They view the choice between Hillary and McRomniani as a Hobson's Choice.

    Personally, I've read the Koran and know that the problem is Islam, not some radical sect. Therefore the "WoT" is nothing more than an immigration issue. So that leaves me only one reason to vote for McRomniani, SCOTUS appointments.

    No, I don't think that McRomniani, if elected, will enforce borders and ports, reform entitlement programs, reform the tax code, or reduce the size of government. In fact, because of the phenomenon of gesellschaft (more people=bigger government), and McRomniani's position on mass immigration, government will inevitabily get larger, much larger.

    You McCain folks have a lot of work to do if you're to convince me that sacrificing conservatism, limited government, and the Rule of Law is worth a SCOTUS pick that may or may not be approved by a tightly divided Senate.

    BTW, I rarely believe Zogby anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Let me see, seven years ago there were hints that McCain had a black child... Ty, who's your daddy? Strom or John McCain?

    ReplyDelete