Thursday, January 17, 2008

Primary’winner is anyone’s guess

The Republican Presidential primary in South Carolina is upon us. On this Saturday, Republicans will go to the polls to select their choice for President of the United States. The day will end what has been an incredible year in the polls in South Carolina.

As it now stands, some polls show John McCain in the lead. Others show Mike Huckabee. Mitt Romney is surging, and has his on the ground negative machine in full action. Two others who have led in previous polls in South Carolina over the past year, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are fighting for their political lives. Giuliani is banking on Florida. Thompson is banking on South Carolina.

Who knows who will win the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary, or the Republican nomination for that matter?

If McCain or Romney pull off the win, it might propel them to big wins on Super Tuesday that keep the Republican convention from being brokered. If Huckabee wins, all such bets are off. Thompson will likely not win, but he was to, he would be the fourth winner in the four meaningful contests so far, again setting up a battle to the end.

The puzzling candidate in the field is Giuliani. He hired a top notch consultant to assist him in South Carolina, and then all but ignored the state in favor of his “big state” strategy that is long on promise and short on momentum. Giuliani’s decision to forego the little states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will either prove to be genius are just plain stupid. Time will tell.

Mike Huckabee, admittedly my choice, needs a win in South Carolina to keep the viability argument alive for him. If Huckabee wins South Carolina, he has momentum for Florida. He wins Florida, then watch out, the guy could end up with the nomination.

The same is true for McCain and Romney. If either of them pulls off the win in South Carolina, their momentum could carry over to Florida and then the big slate on Super Tuesday.

Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani hope they can do the same.

There are more scenarios floating around about the Republican field than there are drunks on Bourbon Street during Mardi gras. Each contending campaign is out spinning how their guy is set to win the nomination. News media types are hyping what might turn out to be the big story of a brokered convention.

The bottom line is the Republican race for President of the United States is virtually wide open in South Carolina and beyond. What happens Saturday in the Palmetto State might yet again go a long way in determining the nominee of the Republican Party.


  1. speaker's mafiaJanuary 17, 2008

    McCain will win. Those of us in this thing of ours have made sure that will happen.

    Remember, it is not the votes that count, it is who counts the votes.

    This thing of ours always makes sure.

  2. You're a moron.

    To describe Romney's ground team as an attack machine, while yourself admitting you're a Huckabee guy is really rich.

    Huckabee injected religious bigotry and personal appearance into this race. Romney attacked Huck's record, which is understandable and fair game.

    Don't let your personal bias get in the way of the truth though. You'll really be great on McCain's team after fata$$ gets bounced Saturday.

  3. Fred is the real deal, the only candidate with a true conservative position on all the issues. The only one who openly invites you to look at his past. The only one who will look you straight in the eye and tell you how it really is, good or bad, straightup. The only one that can be trusted to stand tall, and have the resolve to do what is necessary to protect America.

    Here's some links:

    The following speech is about 17 minutes long, but worth every minute.

    I think he's who we need to Protect America. He's straightforward, strong on national security and defense, tough on illegal immigration, wants to lower taxes more and simplify the tax code, and he's for second ammendment rights and state's rights.