So it's Dwight Drake

For weeks, Democratic insiders have been hinting that a game changing super candidate was going to enter the 2010 Gubernatorial Primary. Dwight Drake, a powerful lobbyist and lawyer, was mentioned often in circles in Columbia. Now, it appears that Drake is indeed the secret super candidate.

Most South Carolinians do not know who Dwight Drake is. Since the days of Governor West in the early 1970s, Drake has been a major backroom player for the Democrats in Columbia. Drake has represented big business interests and some controversial interests, such as video poker and those who wish to place their waste in South Carolina. Drake’s insider knowledge of South Carolina power politics and his ability to raise money are respected by people in both the Democratic and Republican parties. In other words, Drake is a major player behind the scenes. Politicians return his phone calls.

However, being a major player behind the scenes has not resulted in winning statewide elections in South Carolina in modern history. Indeed, since the Constitution of 1895, no lobbyist has been elected Governor of South Carolina. Thus, it appears Drake is in an uphill fight. His lobbyist work alone will be exposed a lot more than Drake probably thinks. There is a big difference between being a staffer and being a candidate. How Drake navigates that difference will determine how well he does in the Democratic primary.

While Drake should not be seen as a game changing super candidate, Drake does have some assets that could make him formidable in the Democratic Primary. First, he is the ultimate insider. Drake knows where the political bodies are buried and whose buttons to push. Second, he is able to raise a boatload of money from the first factor. Third, Drake benefits from the lack of support that the establishment Democrats in Columbia have for Jim Rex, who they did not even choose as delegate to the Democratic National Convention, and Vincent Sheheen, who they fear as a youthful reformer. Fourth, Drake has hired the people who advised Obama in South Carolina, which strongly hints that the Obama organization could give him support.

The above factors make Drake a serious player in the 2010 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary. However, it is unlikely that Drake would be a strong General Election candidate. Drake could be if everyone else dropped out of the primary and closed ranks behind him for the nomination, as was the case with Jim Hodges in 1997 and 1998. The same could be said for either Rex or Sheheen.

However, the atmosphere just does not seem to be right for that. Democrats are sensing a chance to make big gains in South Carolina in wake of the Sanford scandal, and are likely to fight out a tough and bitter primary for the Governor.

The Republicans are likely to do the same. The difference is the Republican nominee will have to fight off the urge to size the drapes in the Governor’s Mansion if Drake is the Democratic nominee. Such an assertion is no offense to Drake. By all accounts he is a smart and good man. However, in the General Election, those special interests he has represented will be difficult to explain to swing voters in South Carolina that typically swing Republican. A Democratic nominee has to give voters a reason to split their ticket in South Carolina. It does not seem Drake can do that.