Huckabee looks like the early front runner

We have a little over three years until the next Presidential election, and about two years and three months from the first primary. Yet, polling has begun.

Ramussen Reports came out with a poll this week and the results were interesting. The poll had Mike Huckabee leading the potential Republican field with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24%, Sarah Palin at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 14% and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

What does this tell us about 2012? It good be good news for Huckabee if he can build his lead up a bit. Front runners in the GOP, even this far out, have won the nomination since 1956. In 1952, Robert Taft was the early favorite but General Dwight Eisenhower declared himself a Republican and won the GOP nomination. Here is the list:

1956 Dwight Eisenhower (President)
1960 Richard Nixon (VP-favored)
1964 Barry Goldwater (slightly favored in early polling over Nelson Rockefeller.)
1968 Richard Nixon (former VP, favored early on)
1972 Richard Nixon (President)
1976 Gerald Ford (President, slightly favored early over Ronald Reagan)
1980 Ronald Reagan (favored early)
1984 Ronald Reagan (inc. President)
1988 George H.W. Bush (favored over Bob Dole early)
1992 George H.W. Bush (President)
1996 Bob Dole (favored early, since election of Clinton)
2000 George W. Bush (favored early over McCain)
2004 George W. Bush (President)
2008 John McCain (favored early, floundered a bit, then won nomination)

There is also an interesting factor in the GOP involving candidates who finish second in a competitive primary gaining the nomination in the next competitive primary. In 1976, Ronald Reagan lost a tough primary fight to President Gerald Ford, and then won the nomination in 1980, defeating George H.W. Bush, who won the nomination in 1988. Bush defeated Bob Dole, who won the nomination in 1996.

George W. Bush's nomination in 2000 broke the trend, but the trend returned when John McCain, who lost to Bush, won the 2008 nomination. As Huckabee finished second to McCain in 2008, the trend could benefit him in 2012.

Huckabee has also stayed in the public eye and not had to get involved in the Washington politics that are disenchanting so many Republicans. Huckabee has kept an organization intact and has a television show and other media venues offering his commentary. Through those venues, Huckabee has showed a more personable and positive side to the Republican side of things.

But, can Huckabee's strengths and history lead him to the nomination in 2012? That is hard to determine. If the current candidates thought to be running run, Huckabee will be hard to beat in the South. Romney could win elsewhere. Thus, among the candidates above, the race would come down to Huckabee and Romney. Palin and Gingrich are interesting candidates who simply will not get the nomination. Despite his 4% showing, Tim Pawlenty is a wild card candidate. Pawlenty has been running a state and has not stretched his national political legs yet.

Of course, there is always someone out there the national media has not picked up on yet that could rock the political world. After all, the current President of the United States was a freshman Senator from Illinois in 2005, trying to get better office space. Sarah Palin was a former small town mayor. Frankly who knows who is waiting out there to be the next political force.