Jim Rex is in trouble and does not even know it

The Jim Rex campaign pushed its most recent polling efforts and got coverage in The State newspaper. What is hard to understand is why they are pushing the internal poll numbers reported in The State.

According to that article, Rex has 60 percent name ID among Democratic voters. It is better than the others running against him, but still pretty weak for the only statewide Democratic office holder. Further, despite Democratic voters knowing him, only 41 percent have a favorable opinion of him and only about 25% would vote for Rex in the Democratic Primary for Governor. That would make Rex competitive for a runoff spot, but does not make him the clear front runner he should be at this point. Simply put, Rex is in trouble.

VUI contends he does not know he is in trouble because Rex and his people touted such numbers. No true front runner has such numbers. Further, if someone is a current statewide office holder and has favorable numbers in the low forties, they are done. It happens in both parties. If the better known candidate cannot get out of the forties on favorable ratings, chances are that candidate will plateau in the forties. It gets that candidate a runoff loss.

Take a look at history. It happened to former Governor David Beasley in the 2004 Republican Senate Primary. Beasley was well known, but stayed in the 40s. When the runoff was held, he stayed there, losing the runoff to Jim DeMint On the Democratic side, Nick Theodore staved off an upset bid by Joe Riley in the 1994 Gubernatorial runoff by a handful of votes after going into the primary as the one of the most well known political figures in South Carolina. The wounded Theodore campaign limped to a loss to David Beasley in the fall. Countless other examples have happened at all levels of elected office. In other words, history shows that if the better known guy hovers in the low 40s in favorables and the mid 20s in who would vote for him, his campaign is in real trouble.

Further, the trouble is compounded when Rex and his handlers tout such numbers. Such shows they do not understand the position that they are really in. A campaign that was aware of its true position would not tout such numbers, but keep them quiet and work to find a way to improve upon them. Add to those numbers the finance woes of the Rex campaign, and well, it seems Rex and his handlers do not see the reality of the Rex situation. Thus, it seems Jim Rex is in trouble and does not even know it. One would think a man in Rex's profession would be better educated about his own standing.