Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Virginia Gubernatorial elections are no political bell weathers

Tuesday night was a night of welcomed relief for the Republican Party, as Republicans took over the Governor's Mansions in Virginia and New Jersey. Pundits and bloggers both are abuzz about the return of the GOP and how the Obama honeymoon is over.

Perhaps the honeymoon is over, but there is a lot of work left to be done to thwart Obama and the Democrats.

First, Republicans and/or conservatives lost a Republican US House Seat in New York to a Democrat. Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Douglas Hoffman. Hoffman was the defacto Republican candidate for the seat after Republican leaders like Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty ran out the official Republican nominee out of the race. Democrats were gleeful to pull off the win and add one more to their caucus in the House as Republicans went through their "RINO" purification ritual. Republicans have to realize they can not continue to narrow the definition of "Republican" and hope to gain governing control in Congress. But, there are always those who like to complain more than do. Those Republicans are probably as happy as the Democrats with the results in New York.

As for the Governor's races, history shows they are no bell weather races for future elections. In Virginia, it seems history runs contrary to that notion. In 1981, Democrat Chuck Robb won election as Governor of Virginia. Three years later, Ronald Reagan won re-election. Republican George H.W. Bush won in 1988 after Democrat Gerald Baliles won the Governor's race in 1985. Republican George Allen won the Governor's office in 1993, only to see Bill Clinton re-elected in 1996. Democrat Mark Warner was elected Governor in 2001, and George W. Bush won re-election in 2004.

Does Bob McDonnell's win on Tuesday night mean that Barack Obama will be re-elected President? No, of course not. Chances are it means nothing to the re-election of the President or Congressional elections. It does show that Obama is human and not politically invincible. Obama's endorsements in Virgina and New Jersey did not turn people on or out to the polls.

To put it in boxing terms, Obama seemed invincible until Tuesday night. Now, he's been cut, so speak. Obama is human. But proving Obama is human is not going to win the fight for 2010 or 2012. Human as he his, Obama's operation still packs a big left hand. The GOP is going to have to continue to work hard and find ways to get along with one another in order to cobble together coalitions that will put the GOP back in power.

1 comment:

  1. Brian McCarty will have his own defeat come June when he runs against Cindy Wilson for County Council. Wait and see. McCarty is running. Don't believe his denials.