Sunday, June 13, 2010

Barrett is taking the role of Joe Riley from 1994


Sixteen years ago, Democrats nearly nominated then Lt. Governor Nick Theodore for Governor in the primary. Theodore pushed the 50 percent mark, but fell short, forcing Theodore into a runoff with Charleston Mayor Joe Riley, who was down in the 20s. Pressure was brought upon Riley back then to concede the race. Riley did not.

What occurred was one of the closest primary runoffs in South Carolina political history. Theodore won, but only barely, leaving him wounded in the fall campaign against David Beasley. Joe Riley, despite the fact he lost the runoff, was vindicated for running a runoff campaign by the closeness of the runoff vote.

Sixteen years later, Gresham Barrett plays the role of Joe Riley in the Republican Primary. Nikki Haley came close to winning the nomination outright last Tuesday, and Barrett trailed her back in the 20s. Like Riley, Barrett is running and not backing off. Some call him stubborn for doing so, but Barrett might be smart.

Primary runoffs are crazy things in South Carolina politics. Just four years ago, it seemed that Mike Campbell would whip Andre Bauer for the Lt. Governor’s nomination after beating Bauer well in the primary. Yet, Bauer turned out more voters in key counties than he did in the primary and won the nomination.

Bauer’s victory in 2006 is just one example of a long line of primary runoff upsets. Relatively few voters turn out to vote in the primaries, even less show up to vote in the primary runoff. Because of the limited number of voters who will show up to vote in the runoff, runoff elections are elections in which campaigns face a clean slate and compacted time in which to campaign. That is why VUI says when a candidate makes a runoff, all it really means is that it is time for that candidate to really go to work.

That said, Nikki Haley, like her or not, does not have the Republican nomination for Governor yet, despite what national media outlets such as NBC News say. Gresham Barrett still has something to say about the matter. Do not be shocked if Barrett, like Riley years ago, makes the primary a lot more interesting and closer than expected. Barrett has money and charisma. So far, Barrett is making the right move in not attacking Haley, which her campaign wants him to do.

Do not be surprised if “good girl” Haley has supporters who attack Barrett. It is how that crowd operates. They have their candidate talk about a positive campaign while supporters attack the opponent on the internet and through other media outlets. It is as effective as it is deceptive. It is how the people around Haley got Mark Sanford elected Governor and they are counting on the same tactics to get Haley elected.

The Haley campaign is pretty ticked that Barrett decided to make the runoff a race. That is for a reason. Once the spotlight got on the Haley campaign, they basked in the glow of charges of affairs and their denials of it. But, over the next week, real matters will come up, such as Haley’s attendance record in the SC House and her stands on issues. Frankly put, when you look at Haley’s ability to really get things done, her record is lacking.

Haley reminds VUI of ole Nick Theodore in 1994. People voted for ole Nick in the primary because they liked him. Then, when faced with the crucible of a runoff, people started looking at what he stood for, and damn near nominated Joe Riley, who supposedly had no chance. With moves like making Bill Connor her de facto running mate, Haley is going down that road. It could be a much closer race for Governor than people think, unless the Haley camp can come up with another questionable character who claimed he messed around with her.

14 comments:

  1. Motorcycle ManJune 13, 2010

    Now, Brian, I like your stuff on this blog. You know that. But, you are wrong on this one. Just ask you pop. Barrett is a jerk. Nikki might have slept with half of Columbia for all I know, but she is for making people vote on the record. That is needed.

    Barrett is out for the money. I don't care if that bitch did Steve Spurrier, I would vote for her against Barrett.

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  2. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    Barrett is a gnat... this election is over... Nikki will get around 70% while Barrett will get around 30%....

    """"
    Haley’s attendance record in the SC House and her stands on issues. Frankly put, when you look at Haley’s ability to really get things done, her record is lacking.
    """"

    Do you think Barrett wants to talk about attendance records?

    hahahahahahahahaha

    One big problem Barrett has(had) is that with Alvin Greene the media is not really paying much attention to the race anymore...

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  3. Franki G.June 13, 2010

    Hey, Brian you are trying to make this race interesting, but it is not. Haley will whip Barret like a bastard step child. As you say, it ain't gonna be pretty.

    Stick the AG race, it is more interesting.

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  4. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    What if Barrett admits he messed around with Haley? Hmmmmmm.

    ReplyDelete
  5. A senator from south carollinaJune 13, 2010

    It's late. I'm drunk. You are Hindu and a member of the SC House. It's own if you can do half of the things in that book you ragheads put out called kuma sutra.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    Senator, I will only show my talents if you are for private school vouchers and for the Mark Sanford agenda.

    MY pimp Will tells me I can't do anything else.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    Two important things we have to do: 1) Get the vote out, especially traditional SC Conservative voters
    2) Put some safeguards in place to make sure the vote is the true vote and not manipulated the way the Primary was. Voter fraud is a real concern and has to be investigated. We have to demand from whomever is in charge, election commission, feds, sttorney general that they scrutinize the polling places to ensure reliability.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    I believe Barrett can, and shoud, win. 51% voted against Haley. Watch out, her people do play very dirty. She is scared to debate, though invited. She refuses to be transparent with the income tax and campaign finance records. Wonder what she'll do about the vetoe of ETV, the Museums and Arts this week? Will she even show up to do her job? The Ron Paul Libetarians are gonna get mad if she votes to keep our cultural institutions open. I suggest she and Mark donate thier salaries and stop flying on our dime and allow our children these places to grow and learn. We MUST ensure the elections are free of vote tampering!!!!!

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  9. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    There was no vote tampering... Rawl's people are making things up... reports of more votes being cast for Greene than actual voters in some precincts are complete lies... a 10 point swing in absentee is nothing....

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  10. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    Why are some people so adamant there was no vote tampering? Have you seen any of the interviews with Green? There is definitely something up here. I read yesterday that Haley's polling firm PPP had looked into and it was just random. Who asked them to make a statement regarding it? I'm sure it wasn't Clyburn or Rawls. That camp does seem to protest too much. Personally, I think we deserve answers. I intend to write letters to all involved parties (and others too) and encourage them to investigate it and to provide extra scrutuny at the polls for the runoff. The primary may need to be overturned. Can you imagine if a few of the zealots are manipulating elections? It could be even more widespread than SC. Do I like a good conspiracy theory? Yes, of course. But this one is based in reality.

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  11. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    """"
    I read yesterday that Haley's polling firm PPP had looked into and it was just random. Who asked them to make a statement regarding it?
    """"

    PPP is a democratic polling firm... they made statements because people were talking and they had a poll that showed that nobody knew who Rawl was... also their poll had DeMint up 19 points...

    SCIndex is a BS poll outfit that seems to exist only to make SC Dems feel good... don't believe anything they say... Rawl is a moron for touting their poll showing them only 7 points behind DeMint...

    http://scindex.blogspot.com/

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  12. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    If PPP is a democratic polling firm, why did they call me asking about Haley/Loftis? Why did the Haley camp feed the results to all the media outlets and brag about her big lead? I don't know anything about the other group as I don't usually vote (will change if Haley gets on ticket). I do know, the Haley people like to call names as you proved in your response to me. Ask her to agree to a debate on the issues on TV. Ask her to be transparent and release her income tax and financial finance records.

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  13. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    """If PPP is a democratic polling firm, why did they call me asking about Haley/Loftis?"""

    PPP is a well known reputable democratic polling firm... PPP is to the left what Rasmussen is to the right... this is all well known and if you don't know it then I just don't know what to say... except you're a little ignorant... you probably voted for Alvin Greene

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  14. AnonymousJune 13, 2010

    "PPP is a well known reputable democratic polling firm... PPP is to the left what Rasmussen is to the right... this is all well known and if you don't know it then I just don't know what to say... except you're a little ignorant... you probably voted for Alvin Greene"

    I know they called me and asked questions about the gov race and loftis. I believe, from the way the questions were worded, and the way the campaign spun the results, they were working for Haley et al. If you can PROVE differenctly, feel free. You're telling me they only do Dem polling? Why did they call me? It seems to me, on any forum I visit, when I say something that strikes a nerve with a Haley supporter they start calling me names. I notice they call other people names as well if they don't like what they say. I assume it is a reflection of the character of your candidate that she surrounds herself with such people.Why are you so afraid of investigating the Alvin Green situation. A little light and transparency never hurts anyone.

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